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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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